Prescription drug coverage and effective coverage of three chronic conditions of high prevalence in Chile: Hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia.

BACKGROUND: Access to medicines is a serious problem globally and in Chile. Despite the creation of coverage policies, part of the population with chronic conditions of high prevalence, still does not have access to the medicines it requires and disease control continues to be low. The objective of the study was to estimate the medication use and effective coverage for diabetes, dyslipidemia and hypertension in Chile, analyzing them according to sociodemographic variables and social determinants of health. METHODS: Cross-sectional analytical study with information from the 2016-2017 National Health Survey (sample = 6,233 people aged 15 years or older, expanded = 14,518,969). Descriptive analyses of medication use and effective coverage for hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia were carried out, and multivariate logistic regression models were developed to analyze possible associations with variables of interest. RESULTS: 60% of people with hypertension or diabetes use medications and only 27.7% in dyslipidemia. While 54.2% of those with diabetes have their glycemia controlled, in hypertension and dyslipidemia the effective coverage drops to 33.3% and 6.6%, respectively. There are no differences in use by health system, but there are differences in the control of hypertension and diabetes, favoring beneficiaries of the private subsystem. Effective coverage of dyslipidemia and hypertension also increases in those using medications. The drugs coincide with the established protocols, although beneficiaries of the private sector report greater use of innovative drugs. CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of Chileans with hypertension, diabetes or dyslipidemia still do not use the required medications and do not control their conditions.

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS)on the influence of adjusting medical service fees on patients' choice of medical treatment.

BACKGROUND: We explored the impact of medical service fee adjustments on the choice of medical treatment for hypertensive patients in Beijing. We hope to provide decision-making reference to promote the realization of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment in Beijing. METHODS: According to the framework of modeling simulation research and based on the data of residents and medical institutions in Beijing, we designed three models of residents model, disease model and hospital model respectively. We then constructed a state map of patients' selection of medical treatment and adjusted the medical service fee to observe outpatient selection behaviors of hypertensive patients at different levels of hospitals and to find the optimal decision-making plan. RESULTS: The simulation results show that the adjustment of medical service fees can affect the proportion of patients seeking medical treatment in primary and tertiary hospitals to a certain extent, but has little effect on the proportion of patients receiving medical treatment in secondary hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Beijing can make adjustments of the current medical service fees by reducing fees in primary hospitals and slightly increasing fees in tertiary hospitals, and in this way could increase the number of patients with hypertension in the primary hospitals.

Health care seeking behaviour and financial protection of patients with hypertension: A cross-sectional study in rural West Bengal, India.

BACKGROUND: Elevated blood pressure or hypertension is responsible for around 10 million annual deaths globally, and people residing in low and middle-income countries are disproportionately affected by it. India is no exception, where low rate of treatment seeking for hypertension coupled with widespread out-of-pocket payments (OOPs) have been a challenge. This study assessed the pattern of health care seeking behaviour and financial protection along with the associated factors among hypertensive individuals in rural West Bengal, India. METHOD AND FINDINGS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Birbhum district of the state of West Bengal, India, during 2017-2018, where 300 individuals were recruited randomly from a list of hypertensives in a population cohort. Healthcare seeking for hypertension and related financial protection in terms of-OOPs and expenses relative to monthly per-capita family expenditure, were analysed. Findings indicated that 47% of hypertensives were not on treatment. Among those under treatment, 80% preferred non-public facilities, and 91% of them had wide-spread OOPs. Cost of medication was a major share of expenses followed by transportation cost to access public health care facility. Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated longer duration of disease (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 5.68, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.24-25.99) and health care seeking from non-public establishment (aOR: 34.33, CI: 4.82-244.68) were associated with more incident of OOPs. Linear regression with generalized linear model revealed presence of co-morbidities (adjusted coefficient (aCoeff)10.28, CI: 4.96,15.61) and poorer economic groups (aCoeffpoorest 11.27, CI 3.82,18.71; aCoefflower-middle 7.83, CI 0.65,15.00 and aCoeffupper-middle 7.25, CI: 0.80,13.70) had higher relative expenditure. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that individuals with hypertension had poor health care seeking behaviour, preferred non-public health facilities and had suboptimal financial protection. Economically poorer individuals had higher burden of health expenditure for treatment of hypertension, which indicated gaps in equitable health care delivery for the control of hypertension.

Screening for primary aldosteronism in the hypertensive obstructive sleep apnea population is cost-saving.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend screening for primary aldosteronism in patients diagnosed with hypertension and obstructive sleep apnea. Recent studies have shown that adherence to these recommendations is extremely low. It has been suggested that cost is a barrier to implementation. No analysis has been done to rigorously evaluate the cost-effectiveness of widespread implementation of these guidelines. METHODS: We constructed a decision-analytic model to evaluate screening of the hypertensive obstructive sleep apnea population for primary aldosteronism as per guideline recommendations in comparison with current rates of screening. Probabilities, utility values, and costs were identified in the literature. Threshold and sensitivity analyses assessed robustness of the model. Costs were represented in 2020 US dollars and health outcomes in quality-adjusted life-years. The model assumed a societal perspective with a lifetime time horizon. RESULTS: Screening per guideline recommendations had an expected cost of $47,016 and 35.27 quality-adjusted life-years. Continuing at current rates of screening had an expected cost of $48,350 and 34.86 quality-adjusted life-years. Screening was dominant, as it was both less costly and more effective. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis of disease prevalence, test sensitivity, patient age, and expected outcome of medical or surgical treatment of primary aldosteronism. The screening strategy remained cost-effective even if screening were conservatively presumed to identify only 3% of new primary aldosteronism cases. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with hypertension and obstructive sleep apnea, rigorous screening for primary aldosteronism is cost-saving due to cardiovascular risk averted. Cost should not be a barrier to improving primary aldosteronism screening adherence.

The cost-effectiveness of pharmacist-physician collaborative care models vs usual care on time in target systolic blood pressure range in patients with hypertension: a payer perspective.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is highly prevalent in the United States, affecting nearly half of all adults (43%). Studies have shown that pharmacist-physician collaborative care models (PPCCMs) for hypertension management significantly improve blood pressure (BP) control rates and provide consistent control of BP. Time in target range (TTR) for systolic BP is a novel measure of BP control consistency that is independently associated with decreased cardiovascular risk. There is no evidence that observed improvement in TTR for systolic BP with a PPCCM is cost-effective. OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of a PPCCM with usual care for the management of hypertension from the payer perspective. METHODS: We used a decision analytic model with a 3-year time horizon based on published literature and publicly available data. The population consisted of adult patients who had a previous diagnosis of high BP (defined as office-based BP ≥ 140/90 mmHg) or were receiving antihypertensive medications. Effectiveness data were drawn from 2 published studies evaluating the effect of PPCCMs (vs usual care) on TTR for systolic BP and the impact of TTR for systolic BP on 4 cardiovascular outcomes (nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, heart failure [HF], and cardiovascular disease [CVD] death). The model incorporated direct medical costs, including both programmatic costs (ie, direct costs for provider time) and downstream health care utilization associated with acute cardiovascular events. One-way sensitivity and threshold analyses examined model robustness. RESULTS: In base-case analyses, PPCCM hypertension management was associated with lower downstream medical expenditures (difference: -$162.86) and lower total program costs (difference: -$108.00) when compared with usual care. PPCCM was associated with lower downstream medical expenditures across all parameter ranges tested in the deterministic sensitivity analysis. For every 10,000 hypertension patients managed with PPCCM vs usual care over a 3-year time horizon, approximately 27 CVD deaths, 29 strokes, 21 nonfatal MIs, and 12 incident HF diagnoses are expected to be averted. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PPCCM compared to usual care on TTR for systolic BP in adults with hypertension. PPCCM was less costly to administer and resulted in downstream health care savings and fewer acute cardiovascular events relative to usual care. Although further research is needed to evaluate the long-term costs and outcomes of PPCCM, payer coverage of PPCCM services may prevent future health care costs and improve patient cardiovascular outcomes. DISCLOSURES: No funding was received for the completion of this research. The authors have nothing to disclose. Study results were presented as an abstract at the AMCP 2021 Virtual, April 12-16, 2021.

Anti-hypertensive medication access and affordability and their association with blood pressure control at a teaching hospital in Ghana.

INTRODUCTION: many hypertensive patients require two or more anti-hypertensive drugs, but in low- and middle-income countries there may be challenges with medication access or affordability. The objective of this study was to determine accessibility and affordability of anti-hypertensive medicines and their association with blood pressure (BP) control among hypertensive patients attending the Korle-Bu teaching hospital (KBTH) polyclinic. METHODS: a cross-sectional study was conducted among 310 systematically sampled hypertensive patients attending the KBTH Polyclinic in Ghana. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain data on patient demographics and clinical characteristics, prices, availability and mode of payment of generic anti-hypertensive medicines. RESULTS: fifty-nine patients (19.4%) made out-of-pocket payments. At the private pharmacy and hospital, 123 (40.5%) and 77 patients (25.3%) respectively could not afford four anti-hypertensive medicines. Medicines availability at KBTH was 60%. Continuous access to BP drugs at KBTH was 14.8%. Overall access was 74.9% (SD ± 41.3). Out-of-pocket affordability of the medicines was positively correlated with BP control (R=0.12, p=0.037). Obtaining medicines via health insurance only was more likely to result in BP control than making any out-of-pocket payments (OR= 2.185; 95% CI, 1.215 - 3.927). Access at KBTH was more likely to result in BP control (OR=1.642; 95% C.I, 0.843 - 3.201). CONCLUSION: there were access challenges although most patients obtained BP medication free. Out-of-pocket affordability is a challenge for some hypertensive patients. Access to affordable BP medication can improve BP control. These findings provide an impetus for urgently evaluating access to affordable anti-hypertensive medicines in other hospitals in Ghana.

Cost-effectiveness of a Multicomponent Intervention for Hypertension Control in Low-Income Settings in Argentina.

Importance: Hypertension is highly prevalent in low- and middle-income countries, and it is an important preventable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Understanding the economic benefits of a hypertension control program is valuable to decision-makers. Objective: To evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of a multicomponent hypertension management program compared with usual care among patients with hypertension receiving care in public clinics in Argentina from a health care system perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation used a Markov model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a hypertension management program among adult patients with uncontrolled hypertension in a low-income setting. Patient-level data (743 individuals for multicomponent intervention; 689 for usual care) from the Hypertension Control Program in Argentina trial (HCPIA) were used to estimate treatment effects and the risk of CVD. Three health states were included in each strategy: (1) low risk of CVD, (2) high risk of CVD, and (3) death. The total time horizon was the lifetime, and each cycle lasted 6 months. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model inputs were based on trial data and other published sources. Cost and utilities were discounted at a rate of 5% annually. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between the multicomponent intervention and usual care was calculated using the difference in costs in 2017 international dollars (INT $) divided by the difference in effectiveness in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the results. Results: In the original trial, the 743 participants in the intervention group (349 [47.0%] men) had a mean (SD) age of 56.2 (12.0) years, and the 689 participants in the control group (311 [45.1%] men) had a mean (SD) age of 56.2 (11.7) years. In the base-case analysis, the HCPIA program yielded 8.42 discounted QALYs and accrued INT $3096 discounted costs, while usual care yielded 8.29 discounted QALYs and accrued INT $2473 discounted costs. The ICER for the HCPIA program was INT $4907/QALY gained. The model results remained robust in sensitivity analyses, and the model was most sensitive to parameters of program costs. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the HCPIA multicomponent intervention vs usual care was a cost-effective strategy to improve hypertension management and reduce the risk of associated CVD among patients with hypertension who received services at public clinics in Argentina. This intervention program is likely transferable to other settings in Argentina or other lower- and middle-income countries.

Social and economic benefits of secondary prevention of arterial hypertension.

INTRODUCTION: Arterial blood pressure is one of the main vital signs reflecting body functions and, at the same time, the most important functional parameter of the cardiovascular system. High blood pressure is the major modifiable cardiovascular risk factor. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was assessment of the frequency of occurrence of cardiovascular risk factors, with particular consideration of arterial blood pressure. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study was conducted among 509 volunteers from Lublin in eastern Poland who participated in the prophylactic programme entitled 'White Sunday'. Standard measurements of blood pressure were performed using a TM-Z dial pressure gauge. The level of arterial blood pressure and socio-demographic parameters were analyzed. RESULTS: Hypertension was more frequently observed in the group of males than females. The age group especially vulnerable to abnormal blood pressure values were those aged 51-60. Isolated hypertension significantly more often occurred in the group of respondents who mentioned hypertension in an interview, compared to those who reported its absence. Among 367 persons who, in preliminary interview, did not declare hypertension, 60 cases of isolated arterial hypertension were noted (16.3%). From among respondents who declared absence of hypertension in an interview, the largest age group diagnosed with isolated arterial hypertension were those aged 61-70 (17.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Arterial hypertension is a civilisation disease which may be effectively prevented, simultaneously reducing the risk of premature death due to cardiovascular events, as well as reducing social and economic costs. International health organizations recommend the implementation of social screening programmes in order to diagnose high blood pressure and the promotion of routine measurements of arterial blood pressure.

Direct cost of systemic arterial hypertension and its complications in the circulatory system from the perspective of the Brazilian public health system in 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Systemic arterial hypertension (SAH), a global public health problem and the primary risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, has a significant financial impact on health systems. In Brazil, the prevalence of SAH is 23.7%, which caused 203,000 deaths and 3.9 million DALYs in 2015. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost of SAH and circulatory system diseases attributable to SAH from the perspective of the Brazilian public health system in 2019. METHODS: A prevalence-based cost-of-illness was conducted using a top-down approach. The population attributable risk (PAR) was used to estimate the proportion of circulatory system diseases attributable to SAH. The direct medical costs were obtained from official Ministry of Health of Brazil records and literature parameters, including the three levels of care (primary, secondary, and tertiary). Deterministic univariate analyses were also conducted. RESULTS: The total cost of SAH and the proportion of circulatory system diseases attributable to SAH was Int$ 581,135,374.73, varying between Int$ 501,553,022.21 and Int$ 776,183,338.06. In terms only of SAH costs at all healthcare levels (Int$ 493,776,445.89), 97.3% were incurred in primary care, especially for antihypertensive drugs provided free of charge by the Brazilian public health system (Int$ 363,888,540.14). Stroke accounted for the highest cost attributable to SAH and the third highest PAR, representing 47% of the total cost of circulatory diseases attributable to SAH. Prevalence was the parameter that most affected sensitivity analyses, accounting for 36% of all the cost variation. CONCLUSION: Our results show that the main Brazilian strategy to combat SAH was implemented in primary care, namely access to free antihypertensive drugs and multiprofessional teams, acting jointly to promote care and prevent and control SAH.

Group Medical Visit and Microfinance Intervention for Patients With Diabetes or Hypertension in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Incorporating social determinants of health into care delivery for chronic diseases is a priority. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of group medical visits and/or microfinance on blood pressure reduction. METHODS: The authors conducted a cluster randomized trial with 4 arms and 24 clusters: 1) usual care (UC); 2) usual care plus microfinance (MF); 3) group medical visits (GMVs); and 4) GMV integrated into MF (GMV-MF). The primary outcome was 1-year change in systolic blood pressure (SBP). Mixed-effects intention-to-treat models were used to evaluate the outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 2,890 individuals (69.9% women) were enrolled (708 UC, 709 MF, 740 GMV, and 733 GMV-MF). Average baseline SBP was 157.5 mm Hg. Mean SBP declined -11.4, -14.8, -14.7, and -16.4 mm Hg in UC, MF, GMV, and GMV-MF, respectively. Adjusted estimates and multiplicity-adjusted 98.3% confidence intervals showed that, relative to UC, SBP reduction was 3.9 mm Hg (-8.5 to 0.7), 3.3 mm Hg (-7.8 to 1.2), and 2.3 mm Hg (-7.0 to 2.4) greater in GMV-MF, GMV, and MF, respectively. GMV and GMV-MF tended to benefit women, and MF and GMV-MF tended to benefit poorer individuals. Active participation in GMV-MF was associated with greater benefit. CONCLUSIONS: A strategy combining GMV and MF for individuals with diabetes or hypertension in Kenya led to clinically meaningful SBP reductions associated with cardiovascular benefit. Although the significance threshold was not met in pairwise comparison hypothesis testing, confidence intervals for GMV-MF were consistent with impacts ranging from substantive benefit to neutral effect relative to UC. Incorporating social determinants of health into care delivery for chronic diseases has potential to improve outcomes. (Bridging Income Generation With Group Integrated Care [BIGPIC]; NCT02501746).

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a Pharmacist-Led Medication Therapy Management Program: Hypertension Management.

OBJECTIVES: Uncontrolled hypertension is a common cause of cardiovascular disease, which is the deadliest and costliest chronic disease in the United States. Pharmacists are an accessible community healthcare resource and are equipped with clinical skills to improve the management of hypertension through medication therapy management (MTM). Nevertheless, current reimbursement models do not incentivize pharmacists to provide clinical services. We aim to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a pharmacist-led comprehensive MTM clinic compared with no clinic for 10-year primary prevention of stroke and cardiovascular disease events in patients with hypertension. METHODS: We built a semi-Markov model to evaluate the clinical and economic consequences of an MTM clinic compared with no MTM clinic, from the payer perspective. The model was populated with data from a recently published controlled observational study investigating the effectiveness of an MTM clinic. Methodology was guided using recommendations from the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine, including appropriate sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Compared with no MTM clinic, the MTM clinic was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $38 798 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The incremental net monetary benefit was $993 294 considering a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY. Health-benefit benchmarks at $100 000 per QALY and $150 000 per QALY translate to a 95% and 170% increase from current reimbursement rates for MTM services. CONCLUSIONS: Our model shows current reimbursement rates for pharmacist-led MTM services may undervalue the benefit realized by US payers. New reimbursement models are needed to allow pharmacists to offer cost-effective clinical services.

Budget impact and cost-effectiveness analyses of the COBRA-BPS multicomponent hypertension management programme in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: COBRA-BPS (Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation-Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), a multi-component hypertension management programme that is led by community health workers, has been shown to be efficacious at reducing systolic blood pressure in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. In this study, we aimed to assess the budget required to scale up the programme and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. METHODS: In a cluster-randomised trial of COBRA-BPS, individuals aged 40 years or older with hypertension who lived in 30 rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka were deemed eligible for inclusion. Costs were quantified prospectively at baseline and during 2 years of the trial. All costs, including labour, rental, materials and supplies, and contracted services were recorded, stratified by programme activity. Incremental costs of scaling up COBRA-BPS to all eligible adults in areas covered by community health workers were estimated from the health ministry (public payer) perspective. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2016, and Feb 28, 2017, 11 510 individuals were screened and 2645 were enrolled and included in the study. Participants were examined between May 8, 2016, and March 31, 2019. The first-year per-participant costs for COBRA-BPS were US$10·65 for Bangladesh, $10·25 for Pakistan, and $6·42 for Sri Lanka. Per-capita costs were $0·63 for Bangladesh, $0·29 for Pakistan, and $1·03 for Sri Lanka. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were $3430 for Bangladesh, $2270 for Pakistan, and $4080 for Sri Lanka, per cardiovascular disability-adjusted life year averted, which showed COBRA-BPS to be cost-effective in all three countries relative to the WHO-CHOICE threshold of three times gross domestic product per capita in each country. Using this threshold, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves predicted that the probability of COBRA-BPS being cost-effective is 79·3% in Bangladesh, 85·2% in Pakistan, and 99·8% in Sri Lanka. INTERPRETATION: The low cost of scale-up and the cost-effectiveness of COBRA-BPS suggest that this programme is a viable strategy for responding to the growing cardiovascular disease epidemic in rural communities in low-income and middle-income countries where community health workers are present, and that it should qualify as a priority intervention across rural settings in south Asia and in other countries with similar demographics and health systems to those examined in this study. FUNDING: The UK Department of Health and Social Care, the UK Department for International Development, the Global Challenges Research Fund, the UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust.

Applicability and cost-effectiveness of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) in the Chinese population: A cost-effectiveness modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) showed significant reductions in death and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) goal of <120 mm Hg compared with a SBP goal of <140 mm Hg. Our study aimed to assess the applicability of SPRINT to Chinese adults. Additionally, we sought to predict the medical and economic implications of this intensive SBP treatment among those meeting SPRINT eligibility. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used nationally representative baseline data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) (2011-2012) to estimate the prevalence and number of Chinese adults aged 45 years and older who meet SPRINT criteria. A validated microsimulation model was employed to project costs, clinical outcomes, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) among SPRINT-eligible adults, under 2 alternative treatment strategies (SBP goal of <120 mm Hg [intensive treatment] and SBP goal of <140 mm Hg [standard treatment]). Overall, 22.2% met the SPRINT criteria, representing 116.2 (95% CI 107.5 to 124.8) million people in China. Of these, 66.4%, representing 77.2 (95% CI 69.3 to 85.0) million, were not being treated for hypertension, and 22.9%, representing 26.6 (95% CI 22.4 to 30.7) million, had a SBP between 130 and 139 mm Hg, yet were not taking antihypertensive medication. We estimated that over 5 years, compared to standard treatment, intensive treatment would reduce heart failure incidence by 0.84 (95% CI 0.42 to 1.25) million cases, reduce CVD deaths by 2.03 (95% CI 1.44 to 2.63) million cases, and save 3.84 (95% CI 1.53 to 6.34) million life-years. Estimated reductions of 0.069 (95% CI -0.28, 0.42) million myocardial infarction cases and 0.36 (95% CI -0.10, 0.82) million stroke cases were not statistically significant. Furthermore, over a lifetime, moving from standard to intensive treatment increased the mean QALYs from 9.51 to 9.87 (an increment of 0.38 [95% CI 0.13 to 0.71]), at a cost of Int$10,997 per QALY gained. Of all 1-way sensitivity analyses, high antihypertensive drug cost and lower treatment efficacy for CVD death resulted in the 2 most unfavorable results (Int$25,291 and Int$18,995 per QALY were gained, respectively). Simulation results indicated that intensive treatment could be cost-effective (82.8% probability of being below the willingness-to-pay threshold of Int$16,782 [1× GDP per capita in China in 2017]), with a lower probability in people with SBP 130-139 mm Hg (72.9%) but a higher probability among females (91.2%). Main limitations include lack of specific SPRINT eligibility information in the CHARLS survey, uncertainty about the implications of different blood pressure measurement techniques, the use of several sources of data with large reliance on findings from SPPRINT, limited information about the serious adverse event rate, and lack of information and evidence for medication effectiveness on renal disease. CONCLUSIONS: Although adoption of the SPRINT treatment strategy would increase the number of Chinese adults requiring SBP treatment intensification, this approach has the potential to prevent CVD events, to produce gains in life-years, and to be cost-effective under common thresholds.

Disparities in Mortality and Cardiovascular Events by Income and Blood Pressure Levels Among Patients With Hypertension in South Korea.

Background Socioeconomic status is associated with differences in risk factors of cardiovascular disease and increased risks of cardiovascular disease and mortality. However, it is unclear whether an association exists between cardiovascular disease and income, a common measure of socioeconomic status, among patients with hypertension. Methods and Results This population-based longitudinal study comprised 479 359 patients aged ≥19 years diagnosed with essential hypertension. Participants were categorized by income and blood pressure levels. Primary end point was all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and secondary end points were cardiovascular events, a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Low income was significantly associated with high all-cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26; 95% CI, 1.23-1.29, lowest versus highest income) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.25-1.38) as well as cardiovascular events (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.10) in patients with hypertension after adjusting for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, fasting glucose, total cholesterol, and the use of aspirin or statins. In each blood pressure category, low-income levels were associated with high all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular events. The excess risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular events associated with uncontrolled blood pressure were more prominent in the lowest income group. Conclusions Low income and uncontrolled blood pressure are associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension. These findings suggest that income is an important aspect of social determinants of health that has an impact on cardiovascular outcomes in the care of hypertension.

Incident hypertension in urban slums of central India: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have highlighted the burden of hypertension by estimating its prevalence. However, information regarding quantum and characteristics of persons whose blood pressure converts to hypertension range from their previous state of prehypertension or normal blood pressure is crucial for any public health programme. We aimed to estimate incidence rate of hypertension and to identify risk factors for the same, so that it is useful for programme implementation. METHODS: We established a cohort of adults residing in urban slums of Bhopal, who were registered in a baseline cardiovascular risk assessment survey, which was performed between November 2017 and March 2018. Blood pressure assessment was done at least three times at baseline for diagnosis of hypertension, which was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg on two occasions. Participants who did not have a diagnosis of hypertension were followed up during April-June 2019. RESULTS: Of the 5673 participants assessed at baseline, 4185 did not have hypertension of which 3199 (76.4%) were followed up after a median on 1.25 years (IQR 1.08-1.60) and a total of 170 (5.31%) individuals were detected with incident hypertension. Overall incidence rate of hypertension was 4.1 (95% CI 3.54 to 4.75) per 100 person-years of follow-up. On multivariate analysis, age (relative risk/RR 1.98; 95% CI 1.19 to 3.3, for age >60 years), being in first and second wealth tertile (T-1 RR 1.85; 95% CI 1.17 to 2.91) and being illiterate (RR 1.94; 95% CI 1.31 to 2.86) were significant predictors of incident hypertension. Individuals who had prehypertension at baseline also had a significantly increased risk of developing hypertension (RR 2.72; 95% CI 1.83 to 4.03). CONCLUSIONS: We found that incidence of hypertension in urban slums of central India is higher with increasing age and in men. Illiteracy, lower Wealth Index and prehypertension are other determinants. We also demonstrate feasibility of establishing a cohort within the public health delivery system, driven by efforts of community health workers.

Risk Stratification for Early Detection of Diabetes and Hypertension in Resource-Limited Settings: Machine Learning Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impending scale up of noncommunicable disease screening programs in low- and middle-income countries coupled with limited health resources require that such programs be as accurate as possible at identifying patients at high risk. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop machine learning-based risk stratification algorithms for diabetes and hypertension that are tailored for the at-risk population served by community-based screening programs in low-resource settings. METHODS: We trained and tested our models by using data from 2278 patients collected by community health workers through door-to-door and camp-based screenings in the urban slums of Hyderabad, India between July 14, 2015 and April 21, 2018. We determined the best models for predicting short-term (2-month) risk of diabetes and hypertension (a model for diabetes and a model for hypertension) and compared these models to previously developed risk scores from the United States and the United Kingdom by using prediction accuracy as characterized by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the number of false negatives. RESULTS: We found that models based on random forest had the highest prediction accuracy for both diseases and were able to outperform the US and UK risk scores in terms of AUC by 35.5% for diabetes (improvement of 0.239 from 0.671 to 0.910) and 13.5% for hypertension (improvement of 0.094 from 0.698 to 0.792). For a fixed screening specificity of 0.9, the random forest model was able to reduce the expected number of false negatives by 620 patients per 1000 screenings for diabetes and 220 patients per 1000 screenings for hypertension. This improvement reduces the cost of incorrect risk stratification by US $1.99 (or 35%) per screening for diabetes and US $1.60 (or 21%) per screening for hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: In the next decade, health systems in many countries are planning to spend significant resources on noncommunicable disease screening programs and our study demonstrates that machine learning models can be leveraged by these programs to effectively utilize limited resources by improving risk stratification.

Value-based approach to blood pressure telemonitoring and remote counseling in hypertensive patients.

PURPOSE: Blood pressure telemonitoring and remote counselling (BPTM) improves blood pressure (BP) control in patients with hypertension (HTN). Studies assessing the efficacy of BPTM from a value-based perspective are lacking. We investigated whether BPTM fits all principles of the value-based approach (clinical and economic effectiveness, improvement in patient-reported outcome/experience measures (PROM/PREM)). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred and forty ambulatory patients with uncontrolled HTN were randomised in a 2: 1 manner to BPTM (n = 160, mean age 47 y.o.) and usual care (UC, n = 80; 49 y.o.) with baseline and 3-month follow-up clinic visits. BPTM employed a mobile application (for patients) and a desktop version (for clinician), which allowed communication and exchange of medical data. The main outcomes were changes in office and ambulatory systolic (S) BPs, rate of BP control. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) were evaluated in economic analysis. The MOS SF-36 score was taken as a PROM, and the PEQ score was used as a PREM. RESULTS: Larger decreases in office and ambulatory SBPs (-16.8 and -8.9 mm Hg, respectively; p < .05) was achieved in BPTM group while the treatment intensity was equal (2.4 drugs). The ICER 11.1 EUR/-1 mm Hg 24-hour SBP/1 year was 75% effective as per willingness-to-pay threshold. BPTM improved PROM (+2.1 in mean MOS SF-36; p = .04), reduced long-term mortality (+0.11 life years gained), leading to +0.49 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained as compared with UC. The ICUR was 4 169.4 EUR/QALY gained. Patient-reported experience was higher in the BPTM (+10 PEQ, p = .01). The UC group showed minor changes in MOS SF-36 and PEQ (+1.3; +6, respectively; p n.s.). CONCLUSIONS: Being cost-effective, BPTM incorporates both clinical benefits and patient-perceived value. Larger randomised studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Predictive modeling to identify potential participants of a disease management program hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Based on the premise of limited health-care resources, decision-makers pursue to allocate disease management programs (DMP) more targeted. METHODS: Based on routine data from a private health insurance company, a prediction model was developed to estimate the individual risk for future in-patient stays of patients eligible for a DMP Hypertension. The database included anonymous claims data of 38,284 policyholders with a diagnosis in the year 2013. A cutoff point of ≥70% was used for selecting candidates with a risk for future hospitalization. Using a logistic regression model, we estimated the model's prognostic power, the occurrence of clinical events, and the resource use. RESULTS: Overall, the final model shows acceptable prognostic power (detection rate = 64.3%; sensitivity = 68.7%; positive predictive value (PPV) = 64.1%, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.72). The comparison between the selected hypothetical DMP-group with a predicted (LOH) ≥70% showed additional costs of about 69% for the DMP-group compared to insure with a LOH <70%. CONCLUSION: The predictive analytical approach may identify potential DMP participants with a high risk of increased health services utilization and in-patient stays.